We are now a little over halfway through the season, and the Ducks are in the thick of the playoff race. The team has emerged from an embarrassing 9 game losing streak to string together 3 consecutive victories. With 34 games left in the regular season, Anaheim is tied with Los Angeles, San Jose, and Seattle at 51 points. The Western Conference playoff picture is an absolute mess, but 3rd place in the Pacific Division (and both wild card spots) is there for the taking.
State of the Defense
The Ducks have shown to be an improved offensive team this season, but the team still hasn’t figured out how to play sound defensive hockey (although the last 3 games have been a step in the right direction). According to Natural Stat Trick, Anaheim is a bottom tier team in both expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and high danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60).
The defense group as a whole is an interesting mix. Anaheim has 5 defensemen under the age of 26 (Jackson LaCombe, Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Olen Zellweger, and Pavel Mintyukov) and 2 veterans in their 30s (Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas). It hasn’t melded together quite as well as the team has hoped, but there is promise in this group.
The right side of the defense, in particular, is a big question mark. And not just today, but moving forward as well. Both Trouba and Gudas are unrestricted free agents after this season, leaving Helleson, Moore, and Tristan Luneau (currently with San Diego in the AHL) as a very unexperienced trio of right-shot defensemen.
It seems likely that the team will move on from Gudas (and I would not be surprised if he retires), but the situation with Trouba doesn’t seem as straightforward. His next contract won’t be as lucrative as his current one ($8M cap hit), but it’s uncertain how expensive he will be. And considering Trouba will turn 32 in February, the Ducks should be even more careful with the contract length he is seeking. Trouba’s play has rebounded this season (xG% of about 52% at 5v5), and I’m not sure Anaheim can afford to lose him without having at least 1, if not 2 RHD upgrades in its back pocket.
The Drew Helleson Problem
One of the main culprits for Anaheim’s poor defensive play this season is Drew Helleson. I will admit that I have never been very high on Helleson, but his on-ice metrics are eye-catching:
This table tells us that when Helleson is on the ice, Anaheim controls 45.6% of expected goals at 5v5. When Helleson is not on the ice, Anaheim controls 53.6% of expected goals at 5v5. For context, there are only 5 teams in the NHL who control more than 53.6% of expected goals at 5v5. This is not to suggest that Anaheim is a top 5 team in the NHL if Helleson doesn’t play, but it is impossible to ignore the staggering difference between the minutes with and without him.
It doesn’t matter what role Helleson plays in or who his partner is, he drags them down with him. Jackson LaCombe is Anaheim’s clear #1 defenseman, and even he can’t carry Helleson to positive results. In almost 300 5v5 minutes together, they have controlled 48% of expected goals. Without Helleson, the Ducks have controlled 56.8% of expected goals with LaCombe on the ice.
While Ian Moore would be an internal upgrade, the Ducks to have to think of the right side of their defense beyond just this season. If Trouba is a question mark to re-sign, I think the team needs to bring in a quality veteran defenseman to solidify the position for the near future. And that’s where Dougie Hamilton comes in.
Teaching You About Dougie
Dougie Hamilton is a 6’6″ right-shot defenseman who has a long track record of playing big minutes and producing offense. The 32-year-old New Jersey Devil has been a 1st or 2nd pair defensemen for around a decade. He plays both power play and penalty kill, he has a big shot from the point, and he consistently posts positive on-ice metrics.
This season, Hamilton’s counting stats are down. In 43 games, he has only 5 goals and 9 assists, which are far below his usual numbers. Part of the reason for this is his 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage is at 5.49%, which is extremely low. This can be viewed as Hamilton getting unlucky with shots going in while he is on the ice. For context, Pavel Mintyukov is the Anaheim defenseman with the lowest 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage at 7.8%, and even that is a bit low.
One thing about Hamilton is that he loves to shoot the puck. For most of his career, he has averaged over 3 shots on goal per game. This year, that is down to 2.65, but that is still more than any defenseman on the Ducks this season (LaCombe leads the team at 2.14 shots on goal per game). At 6’6″ and 230 lbs, Hamilton gets a lot on his shots, making him a dangerous weapon from distance.
Why Is Hamilton Available?
It’s uncommon for 6’6″ right-shot defensemen who regularly put up 40+ points to be on the trade market. The reason has more to do with his contract than anything else. In 2021, Hamilton signed a 7-year contract with New Jersey for $9 million per year. Today, the Devils are right up against the cap ceiling with essentially zero wiggle room. They have been trying to improve their roster, but they don’t have the cap space to do so. Given New Jersey’s depth on defense and Hamilton’s age/contract, it makes sense for them to move him and his large cap hit.
It was reported that over this past offseason, Hamilton was close to being traded to the San Jose Sharks. However, Hamilton’s contract includes a 10 team trade list, meaning he submits a list of 10 teams he is willing to be traded to. San Jose was not on that list, so the deal never happened. Since then, it seems like New Jersey is set on trying to move Hamilton however they can. They even healthy scratched him for a game in an effort to get Hamilton to expand his list and make a trade easier. The difficulty for New Jersey is that they want to move as much of Hamilton’s $9M cap hit as possible, but there are only so many teams that can take on that kind of money. And now this is where Anaheim comes in.
How Does Hamilton Fit in Anaheim?
Not only does a team need the cap space to fit Hamilton, but they also need to have a fit for him on their team. According to PuckPedia, there are only 12 teams who currently have the cap space to take Hamilton’s entire cap hit. A number of those teams don’t have a sensible spot for Hamilton in their lineups, and another set of those teams are rebuilding and likely not interested in adding a 32-year-old with a big contract. By my count, there are really only 4 other teams besides Anaheim where Hamilton makes sense: Detroit, Philadelphia, San Jose, and Utah. I am sure there are other teams out there that want Hamilton, but these 5 teams (including Anaheim) make the most sense if New Jersey is looking to move out as much of the $9M cap hit as possible. Other suitors would either have to move money elsewhere, or convince New Jersey to retain some of Hamilton’s salary, which they don’t want to do. Because New Jersey’s main priority is clearing Hamilton’s money, they likely won’t net great assets in a trade. In other words, Hamilton will probably only cost the Ducks cap space (and maybe a low tier asset or two).
The Ducks have almost $24M in current cap space, so fitting that contract in won’t be a problem this season. The bigger hurdle for Anaheim will be dealing with Hamilton’s trade protection. Even if Anaheim isn’t on Hamilton’s trade list, he can still be dealt to the Ducks. In recent seasons, it would have been nearly impossible to convince players to accept a trade here. However, with a young, up-and-coming roster and a popular new head coach, there is hope. It’s also worth mentioning that one of Anaheim’s new assistant coaches, Ryan McGill, was Hamilton’s defense/PK coach in New Jersey for the previous 3 years.
When discussing Hamilton and his contract, you also have to factor in the remaining 2 years left beyond this one. After this season, all of Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, and Ian Moore are restricted free agents who need new contracts. And on top of that, there is also Trouba who doesn’t have a contract. According to PuckPedia, the Ducks have about $40M in cap space for next season. Re-signing the restricted free agents will likely take up around $25M of that space. If Trouba is retained, that would bring it up to around $30M, meaning there might be only about $10M of space to work with. Hamilton’s contract would take up almost all of that space. While that is concerning, it shouldn’t be hard to move out some money to give the team more wiggle room.
And what about Hamilton’s spot in the lineup? Like I said before, Helleson should not be playing, so this is what I would do with the defense:
LaCombe-Trouba
Mintyukov-Hamilton
Zellweger-Gudas/Moore
LaCombe and Trouba have been the top 2 defensemen in terms of minutes all season. They haven’t exclusively played together, but in 338 5v5 minutes as a duo, they have controlled about 55% of expected goals. And that pair typically gets played against tougher competition. Hamilton would slide in nicely on the 2nd pair to get slightly easier minutes, and he would also give Mintyukov a very competent partner.
For those that are familiar with Hamilton, a natural concern would be that he is considered to be more of an offensive defenseman, so how would acquiring him help the Ducks play better defense? That is a very fair question. I’m not going to guarantee that adding Hamilton would suddenly make the Ducks a much better defensive team. However, swapping out Helleson for Hamilton almost certainly makes the Ducks a better team as a whole. Hamilton is much better with the puck, and keeping the puck will theoretically allow the Ducks to play less defense. And while Hamilton isn’t necessarily known for his defensive abilities, his on-ice metrics are pretty good. Amongst New Jersey’s regular defensemen, Hamilton’s HDCA/60 is the lowest (best) at 10.24 (Brendan Dillon is next at 11.1). For reference, Zellweger leads the Ducks in this category at 11.89, and he plays much easier minutes than Hamilton does.
Can’t Miss Opportunity
I won’t argue that Hamilton is the perfect fit for Anaheim, but I will say that the opportunity to add this caliber of player for little more than cap space is rare. You don’t get to roll unused cap space over to next year, it burns a hole in your pocket. Anaheim has a need for a legitimate top 4 right-shot defenseman, and while Hamilton doesn’t check every box, he checks plenty of them.
The outlook of the right side of the defense is very shaky beyond this season. Acquiring Hamilton would stabilize that part of the lineup, and it would be a great safety net if Trouba leaves as a free agent in the offseason. If Anaheim misses out on Hamilton AND loses Trouba, they will have painted themselves into a corner that will be difficult to get out of. There is a reason that top 4 right-shot defensemen are typically expensive: they’re uncommon. And if you can buy low on one with an impressive pedigree, you have to at least consider it.
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