All Mighty Hockey Talk

Anaheim ended the season with Radko Gudas, Jacob Trouba, and Drew Helleson on the right side of its defense. After an excellent first season with the Ducks, the 34-year-old Gudas started to show his age this past season. He was often caught out of position and beat on the rush. The 31-year-old Trouba wasn’t much better in his first season as a Duck. And while the 24-year-old Helleson was a nice story, his overall play was ineffective and occasionally detrimental to the team. I don’t trust any of these 3 players to play consistent, reliable minutes, which is a problem if the Ducks are serious about contending for the playoffs next season.

There is some prospect help on the horizon, though. Tristan Luneau had a fantastic rookie season in the AHL. Ian Moore showed well in both the AHL and NHL after signing his entry level contract at the end of his college season. Noah Warren’s unique blend of size and skating makes him an intriguing piece, but he’s likely far from being an NHL contributor. While these prospects do offer some future potential, they probably aren’t ready to play big minutes in the NHL quite yet, and none of them are considered sure things.

The Ducks should be looking at external options to bolster the right side of its defense. Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, and Olen Zellweger have all found spots on the NHL roster, but they are all left-shot defensemen. I believe Anaheim needs to add a solid, complementary right-shot defenseman to reliably absorb minutes, freeing up the younger players to play their games.

Due to scarcity, right-shot defensemen are often the most coveted players around the league, so the Ducks won’t be the only ones looking for this type of player. I have identified 7 potential targets and 3 honorable mentions that could be available this summer:

Rasmus Andersson

Andersson has been a fixture near the top of Calgary’s defense group for a number of years. The 28-year-old defenseman boasts good size (6’1″ 203 lbs), and he’s been trusted to play a lot of minutes in all situations for Calgary. He has averaged over 21 minutes per game in 5 consecutive seasons, and he played nearly 24 minutes per game this past season. Andersson is a good skater with some offensive ability, and he finished last season with the 4th most block shots in the NHL with 196.

Offensively, Andersson is coming off a down season. In 81 games, he had 11 goals and 20 assists for 31 points, which was his lowest point total since the shortened 2020-21 season. Andersson also posted a brutal -38 rating, by far the worst of his career. It should also be noted that Andersson played the final 12 games of his season on a broken leg, which he suffered on March 25. His numbers in that span were not pretty, but he wanted to stay in the lineup to try and get the Flames to the playoffs.

Looking a bit deeper, Andersson’s on-ice metrics were fine, albeit unspectacular. Andersson’s most common parter was Kevin Bahl, who is a decent player, but he was probably in over his head next to Andersson, which could have brought the pair down a bit. With Andersson on the ice, the Flames controlled 50.17% of shots, which was 3rd out of Calgary’s regular defenders, only behind their top pair of MacKenzie Weeger and Joel Hanley.

The interesting part of Andersson’s season is that the Flames controlled 49.06% of expected goals while he was on the ice, but they only controlled 40.38% of actual goals in those minutes. That differential of almost 9 percentage points is quite drastic, and it helps explain his -38 rating. A differential that large often involves bad luck. One number that suggests bad luck is Andersson’s 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage of 5.68%, which was easily the lowest among Calgary’s defensemen (note: on-ice shooting percentage is the percentage of shots on goal that result in goals while that player is on the ice). A typical 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage is in the 8% range, so the pucks were just not going in for Calgary while Andersson was on the ice last season. That doesn’t fully excuse such a poor plus-minus rating, but there is a good chance that number rebounds next season.

Andersson has 1 year remaining on his contract and it comes with a $4.55M cap hit and 6 team no trade list. Calgary is an interesting position, and it is unclear what direction they will take. They were thought to be entering a rebuild, but they had an impressive season and almost made the playoffs. The Flames have Weegar ahead of Andersson on the RHD depth chart (and he’s signed for much longer), and they have promising RHD prospects (Zayne Parekh and Hunter Brzustewicz) waiting for their opportunities.

It would make plenty of sense to trade Andersson to address a different part of the lineup before losing him for nothing next summer in free agency. They could always sign him to an extension, but that would take their most valuable trade chip off the market. I think the Ducks should be interested if they could sign Andersson to a reasonable extension that takes him well beyond next season. The main hurdle would be the acquisition cost. If I were the Flames, I would probably ask for either Trevor Zegras or the Ducks’ 2025 1st round pick (#10 overall). Either of those assets would be very tough to swallow. Maybe a deal could get done without those pieces, but Andersson will be a hot commodity if he hits the trade block.

Noah Dobson

Speaking of hot commodities, if Noah Dobson is on the block this summer, almost every team in the NHL will be interested in trading for him. The 25-year-old, 6’4″ 200 lbs defenseman is known for his skating and offensive ability. Two seasons ago, Dobson put up a ridiculous 70 points in 79 games for the Islanders. This past year, however, Dobson only had 10 goals and 29 assists in 71 games. He averaged over 23 minutes per game, mainly playing at even strength and on the power play. His offensive upside is still very high, and the combination of his frame and mobility gives hope for an improved defensive game in the future.

Dobson’s underlying numbers were impressive this past season. He mainly played with Alexander Romanov, and while they were good together, Dobson’s numbers were just as good, if not better without Romanov. The Islanders controlled 52.47% of shots and 54.49% of expected goals with Dobson on the ice, both ranked 2nd among their regular defensemen.

So why would a young player with a statistical profile like this be available in a trade? Well, it’s not a certainty that he is, but it’s also not out of the question. Dobson will be a restricted free agent on July 1, meaning he doesn’t currently have a contract for next season, but the Islanders maintain his rights.

Dobson is coming off a deal that paid him $4M per season, and he is in line for a significant raise. His camp will argue that he deserves to be paid based off that 70 point season he had 2 seasons ago, but the Islanders will say he should be paid based off the rest of his track record as a 40-50 point defenseman. The Islanders also have 2 right-shot defensemen signed long-term already (Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield). Both of those players are older and lack the offensive ceiling of Dobson, but they also both have full no trade clauses for 2 more years, meaning they’re not going anywhere unless they want to.

Could New York look to move Dobson to bolster a different part of its lineup? They recently won the draft lottery and will be picking 1st in June. The consensus #1 pick is an offensive left-shot defenseman: Matthew Schaefer. If the Islanders draft Schaefer, does Dobson have a long-term role on the team if they only see him as an offensive/power play defenseman? The Islanders also added both Tony DeAngelo and Adam Boqvist as offensive right-shot defensemen at the end of last season. Neither of them have contracts for next season yet, but it’s not hard to see a world where they sign one of them (or both) for cheap, and then move Dobson for an impact forward.

Aaron Ekblad

The 29-year-old former #1 overall pick has been a key cog in Florida’s blue line for a decade. Ekblad has averaged over 20 minutes per game in every season he has played (even in his 18-year-old rookie season), and he was up to 23:31 per game this past season playing in all situations. Ekblad only scored 3 goals this season, but he did add 30 assists in 56 games.

Ekblad was suspended 20 games this year for violating the NHL’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. He claims that it was from taking something to help him recover from recent injuries, which have been an unfortunate feature of Ekblad’s recent seasons. His foot speed has slipped, and it is something to keep in mind when considering him. Even though he hasn’t hit age 30 yet, it is clear that he isn’t quite what he used to be. At 6’4″ and 220 lbs, Ekblad has the size to be an impact defenseman, but his skating is concerning at this stage of his career.

As a team, Florida’s underlying numbers are very good, and Ekblad’s on-ice metrics are no exception. With Ekblad on the ice, Florida controls 55.39% of shots and 54.01% of expected goals. For more context, it is important to note that Florida’s worst regular defensemen in terms of expected goals percentage was Seth Jones at 52.41%, which is still a very good number. So while Ekblad’s 54% is very good compared to the entire league, it is actually average to below average when compared to the other defensemen on his team.

It is also important to note that Ekblad plays on Florida’s top pair with Gustav Forsling, and they regularly get the difficult defensive matchups and defensive zone starts. This season, Ekblad played almost exclusively with Forsling, who is considered one of the best defensive defensemen in the league. The pair played 866 5v5 minutes together and had an expected goals percentage over 54%. In 103 5v5 away from Forsling, Ekblad’s expected goals percentage drops to 50%. Meanwhile, in Forsling’s minutes away from Ekblad, Forlsing’s expected goals percentage shoots up to a ridiculous 63%. It’s not a huge sample, but it suggests that Forsling is doing more of the heavy lifting on that pair.

Ekblad just finished an 8 year contract that paid him $7.5M per season. If Florida does not sign him to an extension by July 1, he will be an unrestricted free agent. Florida’s recent acquisition of Seth Jones suggests that they are likely moving on from Ekblad, and that should be a red flag for teams looking to sign him. If the team that knows him best isn’t interested in keeping him, other teams should be wary.

Ekblad’s pedigree and numbers suggest that he is in line for a large contract, probably one similar to the deal he just finished. However, there is evidence to suggest that his play has deteriorated, and that he’s been carried by a superior defense partner. As the top right-shot defenseman on the free agent market, Ekblad will surely have many suitors, but I would stay away from whatever contract he is looking for. Someone will probably give it to him, I just hope it isn’t Anaheim.

Dante Fabbro

Of all the players on this list, Fabbro probably had the biggest rise last season. However, that has more to do with how low his stock was rather than how high it got. Fabbro started last year with the Nashville Predators, but after averaging just over 13 minutes in 6 games, he was put on waivers. In other words, Nashville was essentially allowing any team to take him off its hands for free. At the time, I was hoping Anaheim would claim him (this was before they traded for Jacob Trouba), but the Columbus Blue Jackets swooped in and took Fabbro.

In 62 games with the Blue Jackets, Fabbro averaged 21:39 per game while mainly playing on Columbus’ top pair next to Zach Werenski, who was one of the best defensemen in the league last season. Fabbro put up 9 goals and 17 assists, and had an impressive +23 rating. The soon-to-be 27-year-old defenseman is not particularly big (6’0″ 190 lbs) or fast, but he plays a quiet game that can harmonize with a more dynamic talent (like Werenski).

The Werenski-Fabbro pair was easily Columbus’ best duo. They controlled 52.39% of shots, 53.81% of expected goals, and 57.14% of actual goals while on the ice. Unsurprisingly, Fabbro’s numbers dipped by a noticeable amount when he wasn’t playing with Werenski. You might be thinking that this sounds similar to the Forsling-Ekblad situation, and you would be correct. The difference is that the cost of signing Fabbro will be a fraction of what it would take to sign Ekblad. I believe that Ekblad is a better player than Fabbro, but when you factor in their ages and the contracts they will receive, I would choose Fabbro.

Even though Fabbro had an impressive run with Columbus, he doesn’t have the track record or pedigree to command what Ekblad can. Like I said earlier, the Predators quite literally gave Fabbro away for free early in the season, even though his cap hit was only $2.5M. If Columbus does not sign him to an extension, he will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1. I could see Fabbro taking the longest deal he can get for some security, or I could see him taking a 1 or 2 year deal to try and build up his value so he can cash in on an even bigger deal when that contract is over. Either way, I think the Ducks should at least look into Fabbro’s asking price as he has the potential to be a relatively cheap option on the 2nd pair next to one of Anaheim’s talented left-shot defensemen.

Dougie Hamilton

Hamilton has been a fixture on New Jersey’s top pair since he signed there in 2021, but he is finally losing his grip on that role. The soon-to-be 32-year-old defenseman is known for his offensive talent and his willingness to use his heavy shot (averaging almost 3 shots on goal per game). Last season, Hamilton had 9 goals and 31 assists in only 64 games, but for the first time since 2018-19, he played fewer than 20 minutes per game (19:51). Hamilton plays quite a bit on the power play, but he has not been trusted to play on the penalty kill. He is skilled and mobile for his size (6’6″ 230 lbs), but at his current age with his recent injury history, Hamilton likely profiles as a power play specialist moving forward.

Hamilton’s underlying numbers have always looked good. With Hamilton on the ice last season, New Jersey controlled 51.68% of shots, 52.22% of expected goals, and 56.25% of actual goals. It is also important to note that New Jersey typically gives Hamilton a lot of offensive zone starts to try and capitalize on his offensive prowess and minimize his defensive shortcomings. Hamilton played the majority of his 5v5 minutes with Brendan Dillon, a solid defensive defenseman who could allow Hamilton to play his aggressive game.

It is not a guarantee that New Jersey will move on from Hamilton, but it’s clear that his role on the team is diminishing. The Devils have recently signed younger right-shot defensemen Brett Pesce and Jonathan Kovacevic to long-term contracts that contain full no trade clauses. They also locked in left-shot defensemen Dillon and Jonas Siegenthaler to multi-year deals. New Jersey also has a few very talented young defensemen to try and fit into the lineup: Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec, and Seamus Casey. Hughes, in particular, looks poised to take over Hamilton’s spot on the top power play.

Hamilton’s contract, however, could be challenging to move. He has 3 years left on his contract that pays his $9M per season. At this moment, he has a full no movement clause, but on July 1, his full no trade protection drops to a 10 team no trade list. New Jersey’s ability to trade Hamilton might depend on Hamilton’s willingness to leave, but I think a trade will be made before the start of next season.

Should the Ducks be interested? I would stay away. Hamilton would likely help the team’s dreadful power play, but the rest of his game does not really fit what the Ducks need. He would take away offensive opportunities from the young Duck defensemen, and he wouldn’t take the defensive pressure off them either. Not to mention his $9M cap hit would be prohibitive to Anaheim filling out the rest of its lineup.

Rasmus Ristolainen

Ristolainen is a trusted defensive defensemen for the Philadelphia Flyers. The 30-year-old does not produce as much offense as he did when he was younger, but his defensive game has grown. Last season, Ristolainen had 4 goals and 15 assists in 63 games. He averaged 20:31 per game, and he was a fixture on Philadelphia’s penalty kill. Ristolainen did get a decent amount of power play time, but that is mainly due to the team’s ineptitude with the man advantage. Ristolainen has always had an intriguing blend of size (6’4″ 220 lbs) and skating ability, but he took a long time to blend those tools into a useful defenseman.

Unlike Hamilton, Ristolainen has never had an impressive analytical profile, but he has somewhat turned that reputation around over the last 2 years. With Ristolainen on the ice at 5v5, the Flyers controlled 51.89% of shots, 51.31% of the expected goals, but just 45.88% of the actual goals. All of those numbers were around average among Flyers defensemen, but Ristolainen was given a very low percentage of offensive zone starts, which makes his numbers seem more impressive.

Ristolainen’s most common defense parter was young Egor Zamula. The pair put up good underlying numbers together, but the pair’s on-ice save percentage was very poor, indicating that there could be some bad luck/goaltending (note: on-ice save percentage is the percentage of shots on goal against that result in saves while that player is on the ice). Interestingly, Ristolainen’s numbers away from Zamula were quite poor (41.03% of expected goals). It seems like Ristolainen struggled when paired with Travis Sanheim, who was Philadelphia’s #1 defenseman.

There were rumors that Philadelphia was close to trading Ristolainen during the season, but he remains with the team for the time being. He doesn’t have any trade protection on his contract, which lasts 2 more years with a $5.1M cap hit. Jamie Drysdale is currently the only other right-shot NHL defenseman on the Flyers, which could make the team hesitant to trade Ristolainen. I would not be surprised if they try to add a right-shot defenseman this offseason and move Ristolainen afterward. The Flyers are rebuilding right now, and they could capitalize on the scarcity of right-shot defenseman in a Ristolainen trade.

I think Ristolainen could potentially be a decent fit with the Ducks. He has the size that GM Pat Verbeek likes, and he could be a nice foil to the offensive defensemen currently on the roster. His contract also isn’t long or big enough to be a major disturbance to the Ducks’ salary cap structure. The main question is: how much better is he than Gudas and Trouba? He’s slightly younger than Trouba, which is a plus, but it’s unclear if he would be an upgrade. I would be interested in Ristolainen, but not for a significant cost. The Flyers had very poor goaltending last season, so could a Ristolainen-Gibson swap make sense?

Zach Whitecloud

Unlike the other players I’ve discussed, Whitecloud does not have much experience playing top 4 minutes. He has been stuck on the 3rd pairing of Vegas’ impressive defense core since he joined the team full-time in 2020-21. Last season, the 28-year-old defenseman averaged 17:31 per game, which was 5th most among Vegas’ regular defensemen. He also played a decent amount on the penalty kill. Whitecloud profiles as a plus skating, reliable defensive player with good size at 6’2″ 220 lbs, and he has never been known for his offensive exploits. He only put up 4 goals and 9 assists in 74 games last year, and that’s about the production you can expect from Whitecloud based on his relatively brief career.

Whitecloud’s underlying numbers have usually been good during his tenure with Vegas. Last season with Whitecloud on the ice at 5v5, Vegas controlled 54.3% of shots, 51.86% of expected goals, and 51.76% of actual goals. Relative to the other defensemen on the team, these numbers were about average, but it’s important to note that Whitecloud isn’t deployed in a way that maximizes his offensive potential. Those minutes are saved for Vegas’ top 2 pairs.

In the past, Whitecloud has typically played a lot with Nic Hague, but Whitecloud’s 5v5 minutes last season were split between Hague and Noah Hanifin. Whitecloud’s numbers with Hague were just OK, but his numbers with Hanifin were fantastic. Whitecloud was likely given more minutes and tougher matchups with Hanifin, who is arguably Vegas’ best defenseman, indicating that Whitecloud might perform well on a top 4 pairing.

The issue for Whitecloud is, though, that Vegas’ top 4 defensemen (Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, and Brayden McNabb) are all locked up for at least 2 more years. There is not much of a path for Whitecloud to break into that group in the near future.

Whitecloud is also locked into his own long-term deal, which has 3 more seasons left at a $2.75M cap hit. This is a very team-friendly deal, so why would Vegas trade him? Well, they have a surplus of quality defensemen and they’re lacking impact forwards, so it would make sense to deal from a strength to address a weakness. Vegas also has Kaedan Korczak, a younger, cheaper right-shot defenseman waiting for a regular spot in the lineup. Swapping Whitecloud for Korczak would save Vegas about $2M in cap space while also freeing up Whitecloud to be used as an asset in a trade.

If Whitecloud were on the block, should the Ducks be interested? I personally think Whitecloud would be an excellent fit in Anaheim as a defensively responsible right-shot defenseman, and Whitecloud’s contract is very palatable for the role he would play. The issue is that a lot of teams could use exactly that, too. If Vegas makes Whitecloud available, there would be a lot of interested parties, and Vegas might prefer to trade him outside the division. Also, if Vegas wants an impact forward for Whitecloud, I’m not sure I see a great candidate for the Ducks to send Vegas’ way. Regardless, Whitecloud is near the top of my list of right-shot defensemen options this offseason.

Other Options:

• Cody Ceci (UFA)
• Henri Jokiharju (UFA)
• Nick Perbix (UFA)